{"id":644421,"date":"2024-11-12T08:48:31","date_gmt":"2024-11-12T00:48:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.youtupa.com\/gonglue\/644421.html"},"modified":"2024-11-13T06:31:39","modified_gmt":"2024-11-12T22:31:39","slug":"%e5%9b%a0%e6%9e%9c%e6%8e%a8%e6%96%ad%ef%bc%9a%e5%88%a9%e5%89%91%e5%92%8c2021%e8%af%ba%e8%b4%9d%e5%b0%94%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e5%ad%a6%e5%a5%96%e4%b8%89%e5%89%91%e5%ae%a2%e7%9a%84%e6%95%85%e4%ba%8b-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.youtupa.com\/gonglue\/644421.html","title":{"rendered":"\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\uff1a\u5229\u5251\u548c2021\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u4e09\u5251\u5ba2\u7684\u6545\u4e8b"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"480\" height=\"300\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtupa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/172d7bfd3f73d674b9307498862e8967.png\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\uff1a\u5229\u5251\u548c2021\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u4e09\u5251\u5ba2\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\" title=\"\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\uff1a\u5229\u5251\u548c2021\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u4e09\u5251\u5ba2\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u7f29\u7565\u56fe\" \/><\/figure>\n<p>\u5317\u4eac\u65f6\u95f410\u670811\u65e518\u70b9\uff0c2021\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u5f97\u4e3b\u63ed\u6653\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u6234\u7ef4\u00b7\u5361\u5fb7\uff08David Card\uff09\u3001\u7ea6\u4e66\u4e9a\u00b7\u5b89\u683c\u91cc\u65af\u7279\uff08Joshua D. Angrist\uff09 \u3001\u548c\u594e\u591a\u00b7\u56e0\u672c\u65af\uff08Guido W. 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Causality\uff09\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u56e0\u679c\u7406\u8bba\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u662f\u4e24\u7ec4\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u89c2\u5bdf\u4e86\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u6536\u5165\u548c\u6d88\u8d39\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u4ece\u6536\u5165\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e0a\u89e3\u91ca\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4f46\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\u4e0d\u884c\uff0c\u90a3\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\u6536\u5165\u662f\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u4f46\u53cd\u4e4b\u4e0d\u7136\u3002\u9700\u8981\u6307\u51fa\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u201c\u683c\u5170\u6770\u56e0\u679c\u201d\u7406\u8bba\u5e2e\u52a9\u5176\u63d0\u51fa\u8005\u514b\u83b1\u592b\u00b7\u683c\u5170\u6770\uff08Clive W.J.Granger\uff09\u65a9\u83b7\u4e862003\u5e74\u7684\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5176\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u5f53\u4e2d\u4e5f\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u5e94\u7528\uff0c\u4f46\u5173\u4e8e\u201c\u683c\u5170\u6770\u56e0\u679c\u201d\u7a76\u7adf\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u5c5e\u4e8e\u771f\u6b63\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5b66\u754c\u662f\u4e00\u76f4\u5b58\u5728\u4e89\u8bba\u7684\u3002\u5e76\u4e14\u968f\u7740\u8ba1\u91cf\u6280\u672f\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u201c\u683c\u5170\u6770\u56e0\u679c\u201d\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u5b66\u754c\u88ab\u9010\u6e10\u8fb9\u7f18\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u540e\u4e00\u4e2a\u7406\u8bba\u5219\u662f\u7531\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u9c81\u5bbe(Donald B. Rubin)\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u57fa\u4e8e\u5e72\u9884\u6548\u5e94\uff08Treatment Effect\uff09\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u800c\u5982\u679c\u4ece\u601d\u60f3\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u6e90\u5934\u5219\u81f3\u5c11\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ffd\u6eaf\u5230\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa\u524d\u534a\u671f\u7684\u8457\u540d\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u8036\u65e5\u2022\u5185\u66fc\uff08Jerzy Neyman\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>1923\u5e74\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u8fd8\u662f\u534e\u6c99\u5927\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u751f\u7684\u5185\u66fc\u5c31\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u95ee\u9898\u8fdb\u884c\u8fc7\u8003\u8651\u3002\u5728\u4ed6\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e00\u79cd\u201c\u5e72\u9884\u201d\uff08treatment\uff09\u8fdb\u884c\u524d\u540e\u88ab\u5e72\u9884\u5bf9\u8c61\u8868\u73b0\u7684\u5dee\u522b\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u4e00\u4ea9\u5730\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u7528\u5316\u80a5\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ea7\u4e94\u767e\u65a4\u7684\u7cae\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u7528\u4e86\u5316\u80a5\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ea7\u516b\u767e\u65a4\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8fd9\u4e2d\u95f4\u5dee\u7684\u4e09\u767e\u65a4\u5c31\u662f\u4f7f\u7528\u5316\u80a5\u8fd9\u4e2a\u201c\u5e72\u9884\u201d\u6240\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u8fd9\u91cc\u5c31\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u4ece\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u8bb2\uff0c\u8981\u770b\u4e00\u4e2a\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\uff0c\u5c31\u5e94\u8be5\u770b\u540c\u4e00\u4ea9\u5730\u5728\u65bd\u80a5\u8fd9\u4e2a\u73b0\u5b9e\u72b6\u6001\u548c\u4e0d\u65bd\u80a5\u8fd9\u4e2a\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff08counterfactual\uff09\u72b6\u6001\u4e0b\u7684\u4ea7\u91cf\u5bf9\u6bd4\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u4e00\u4ea9\u5730\u600e\u4e48\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u8f83\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u72b6\u6001\u5462\uff1f\u663e\u7136\u8fd9\u5c31\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u6096\u8bba\u3002\u5185\u66fc\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b9\u6848\u662f\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u5bf9\u7167\u8bd5\u9a8c\u6765\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u627e\u4e00\u5343\u4ea9\u5730\uff0c\u968f\u673a\u5730\u628a\u5b83\u4eec\u5206\u6210\u4e24\u7ec4\uff0c\u628a\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u7ec4\u89c6\u4e3a\u201c\u5e72\u9884\u7ec4\u201d\uff08treatment group\uff09\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u7ec4\u4f5c\u4e3a\u201c\u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u201d\uff08control 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Duflo\uff09\u548c\u5df4\u7eb3\u5409\uff08Abhijit Banerjee\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u51e0\u5e74\u524d\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u2014\u2014\u5173\u4e8e\u8fd9\u6bb5\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u5148\u524d\u7684\u4e13\u680f\u5f53\u4e2d\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u4ecb\u7ecd\uff0c\u5728\u6b64\u4e0d\u518d\u8d58\u8ff0\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9700\u8981\u8bf4\u660e\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u5f88\u591a\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u8bc6\u522b\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5728\u5f88\u591a\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6839\u672c\u65e0\u6cd5\u8fdb\u884c\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u8bf4\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u5206\u6790\u67d0\u79cd\u98df\u7269\u7684\u81f4\u764c\u6027\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4ece\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u8bb2\uff0c\u6700\u597d\u7684\u529e\u6cd5\u5c31\u662f\u627e\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c\u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u201d\u548c\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ec4\u201d\uff0c\u8ba9\u4e00\u7ec4\u4eba\u5403\u8fd9\u79cd\u98df\u7269\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u7ec4\u4eba\u5219\u4e0d\u5403\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u6bd4\u8f83\u8fd9\u4e24\u7ec4\u4eba\u7684\u764c\u75c7\u60a3\u75c5\u7387\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u6781\u5c11\u6570\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u72c2\u4eba\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u6050\u6015\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u4f1a\u540c\u610f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u5b9e\u5728\u662f\u8fdd\u80cc\u4e86\u4f26\u7406\u3002\u6362\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u5f53\u4e2d\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u63a5\u53d7\u201c\u5e72\u9884\u201d\u5f88\u96be\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u968f\u673a\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e24\u7ec4\u4eba\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u5c31\u4e0d\u518d\u80fd\u76f4\u63a5\u8868\u8fbe\u51fa\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u4ee5\u5438\u70df\u548c\u764c\u75c7\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u7406\u8bba\u5c31\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u4eba\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u7231\u5438\u70df\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u542b\u6709\u67d0\u79cd\u57fa\u56e0\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u79cd\u57fa\u56e0\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u80fd\u8ba9\u4eba\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u5f97\u764c\u75c7\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8868\u9762\u4e0a\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u7684\u5438\u70df\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u9ad8\u81f4\u764c\u7387\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u79cd\u57fa\u56e0\u6240\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u57fa\u4e8e\u4ee5\u4e0a\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u9c81\u5bbe\u5728\u5206\u6790\u56e0\u679c\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u6cbf\u7528\u5185\u66fc\u6240\u5efa\u8bae\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u4ed6\u4fdd\u7559\u4e86\u5185\u66fc\u5173\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5b83\u5e94\u8be5\u88ab\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u201c\u5e72\u9884\u201d\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u72b6\u6001\u4e0e\u6ca1\u6709\u8fdb\u884c\u201c\u5e72\u9884\u201d\u7684\u201c\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u201d\u72b6\u6001\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u533a\u522b\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u600e\u4e48\u6837\u624d\u80fd\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u72b6\u6001\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u522b\u5462\uff1f\u4ed6\u7ed9\u51fa\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u53ef\u4ee5\u521b\u9020\u4e00\u79cd\u73af\u5883\uff0c\u5728\u63a7\u5236\u4e00\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u540e\uff0c\u8ba9\u662f\u5426\u63a5\u53d7\u201c\u5e72\u9884\u201d\u53ef\u4ee5\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u968f\u673a\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u6bd4\u8f83\u63a5\u53d7\u201c\u5e72\u9884\u7ec4\u201d\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u8868\u73b0\u548c\u201c\u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u201d\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u8868\u73b0\u6765\u83b7\u5f97\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u4e86\u3002\u6216\u8005\u66f4\u4e3a\u901a\u4fd7\u5730\u8bf4\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u5f53\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709\u65f6\u5019\u6211\u4eec\u6ca1\u6cd5\u8fdb\u884c\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5982\u679c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bbe\u6cd5\u6a21\u62df\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u968f\u673a\u8bd5\u9a8c\u73af\u5883\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5185\u66fc\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u5c31\u4f9d\u7136\u662f\u9002\u7528\u7684\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u627e\u5230\u4e24\u7ec4\u4eba\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u8ba4\u5b9a\u4ed6\u4eec\u4ece\u4e8b\u524d\u770b\u9009\u62e9\u5438\u70df\u548c\u4e0d\u5438\u70df\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u76f8\u540c\u7684\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u6bd4\u8f83\u8fd9\u4e24\u7ec4\u4eba\u7684\u764c\u75c7\u53d1\u75c5\u7387\u6765\u63a8\u65ad\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9c81\u5bbe\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u6846\u67b6\u4e00\u7ecf\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u5c31\u7acb\u5373\u5f15\u8d77\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u5b66\u79d1\u7684\u91cd\u89c6\u3002\u800c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u754c\u663e\u7136\u662f\u53d7\u5230\u5176\u5f71\u54cd\u6700\u6df1\u7684\u9886\u57df\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u5728\u9c81\u5bbe\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u201c\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u201d\u5f00\u59cb\u9010\u6e10\u5360\u9886\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e13\u4e1a\u6742\u5fd7\uff0c\u968f\u540e\u53c8\u5f00\u59cb\u9010\u6e10\u5360\u9886\u4e86\u6559\u79d1\u4e66\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u663e\u5b66\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u201c\u4e94\u628a\u5251\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u73b0\u5728\u9c81\u5bbe\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e3a\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u548c\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u5269\u4e0b\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u5c31\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u624d\u80fd\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6846\u67b6\u8fdb\u884c\u5e94\u7528\u3002\u6362\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u53bb\u521b\u9020\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c\u5e72\u9884\u7ec4\u201d\u548c\u201c\u5e72\u9884\u7ec4\u201d\u72ec\u7acb\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u5404\u79cd\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u73af\u5883\u3002\u4ece\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u6587\u732e\u770b\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u6bd4\u8f83\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e3b\u8981\u6709\u4e94\u79cd\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c\u4e00\u79cd\u662f\u201c\u503e\u5411\u6027\u5f97\u5206\u5339\u914d\u201d\uff08propensity score matching\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u63d0\u51fa\u8005\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u9c81\u5bbe\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\u8005\u4fdd\u7f57\u00b7\u7f57\u68ee\u9c8d\u59c6\uff08Paul Rosenbaum\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u601d\u8def\u5f88\u7b80\u5355\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5982\u524d\u9762\u8bf4\u7684\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u4ece\u201c\u5e72\u9884\u7ec4\u201d\u548c\u201c\u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u201d\u5f53\u4e2d\u627e\u51fa\u4e24\u7ec4\u4eba\u6765\uff0c\u4fdd\u8bc1\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e8b\u524d\u9009\u62e9\u662f\u5426\u63a5\u53d7\u5e72\u9884\u7684\u6982\u7387\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5bf9\u5176\u8868\u73b0\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5177\u4f53\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8003\u8651\u4e24\u7ec4\u4eba\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u7279\u5f81\u5bf9\u4e8e\u662f\u5426\u63a5\u53d7\u201c\u5e72\u9884\u201d\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u62bd\u70df\u4f1a\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5f88\u591a\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5e74\u9f84\u3001\u6027\u522b\u3001\u8d22\u5bcc\u3001\u5730\u4f4d\u3001\u5de5\u4f5c\u7b49\u5927\u91cf\u56e0\u7d20\u90fd\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u62bd\u70df\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u5229\u7528\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u628a\u6bcf\u79cd\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5927\u5c0f\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u5438\u70df\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u968f\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u628a\u201c\u5e72\u9884\u7ec4\u201d\u548c\u201c\u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u201d\u5f53\u4e2d\u6982\u7387\u8fd1\u4f3c\u7684\u4eba\u5206\u522b\u62c9\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u4e24\u7ec4\u4eba\u5f53\u4e2d\uff0c\u90fd\u6709\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\u4ece\u4e8b\u524d\u770b\u670970%\u7684\u6982\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u5438\u70df\uff0c\u4ece\u4e8b\u540e\u770b\uff0c\u786e\u5b9e\u5438\u4e86\u70df\u7684\u4eba\u764c\u75c7\u60a3\u75c5\u7387\u662f3%\uff0c\u800c\u6ca1\u6709\u5438\u70df\u7684\u4eba\u7684\u60a3\u75c5\u7387\u662f1%\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8fd9\u4e00\u6279\u4eba\u5f53\u4e2d\uff0c\u5438\u70df\u5bf9\u764c\u75c7\u53d1\u75c5\u7387\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u5c31\u662f2%\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u91cd\u590d\u4ee5\u4e0a\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u628a\u6240\u6709\u6982\u7387\u7684\u4eba\u90fd\u8fdb\u884c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5bf9\u6bd4\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u5f88\u591a\u7ec4\u5dee\u503c\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u628a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5dee\u503c\u8fdb\u884c\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u5c31\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u8981\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c\u4e8c\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u56de\u5f52\u5206\u6790\uff08Regression Analysis\uff09\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8981\u8be6\u7ec6\u8003\u5bdf\u56de\u5f52\u7684\u5386\u53f2\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u81f3\u5c11\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ffd\u6eaf\u5230\u8fbe\u5c14\u6587\u7684\u90a3\u4f4d\u8868\u5f1f\u9ad8\u5c14\u987f\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u4e00\u4e9b\u751a\u81f3\u4e0d\u88ab\u4ed6\u81ea\u5df1\u770b\u597d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u50ac\u751f\u4e86\u73b0\u4ee3\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u5de5\u5177\u2014\u2014\u56de\u5f52\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8981\u7528\u7eaf\u6587\u5b57\u4ecb\u7ecd\u56de\u5f52\u5e76\u4e0d\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\uff0c\u4f46\u5927\u81f4\u4e0a\u8bb2\uff0c\u5b83\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u6c42\u89e3\u6761\u4ef6\u5747\u503c\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4e3e\u4f8b\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5047\u5982\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e2a\u5730\u533a\u7684\u623f\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u53ca\u5176\u5f71\u54cd\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u6790\u3002\u5f71\u54cd\u623f\u4ea7\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u5730\u6bb5\u3001\u697c\u5c42\u3001\u6237\u578b\u3001\u9762\u79ef\u90fd\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u623f\u4ef7\u3002\u4f46\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7814\u7a76\u8005\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u786e\u5207\u5730\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7ed9\u5b9a\u5176\u4ed6\u56e0\u7d20\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u7a76\u7adf\u662f\u600e\u4e48\u5f71\u54cd\u623f\u4ef7\u7684\u3002\u6216\u8005\u66f4\u4e3a\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u628a\u623f\u4ef7\u8868\u793a\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u7531\u5404\u79cd\u56e0\u7d20\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u5728\u6bcf\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u524d\u9762\uff0c\u90fd\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u8868\u793a\u7ed9\u5b9a\u5176\u4ed6\u56e0\u7d20\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u5bf9\u4e8e\u623f\u4ef7\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5927\u5c0f\u3002\u5f97\u5230\u8fd9\u4e2a\u516c\u5f0f\u7684\u6b65\u9aa4\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u56de\u5f52\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u5f53\u4e2d\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b0\u56de\u5f52\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u6700\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201c\u6700\u5c0f\u4e8c\u4e58\u6cd5\u201d\u3002\u5f88\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u8003\u8651\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u90fd\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5916\u751f\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7684\u91cf\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u53d7\u5176\u4ed6\u9690\u85cf\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u56de\u5f52\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f88\u597d\u5730\u63a7\u5236\u90a3\u4e9b\u65e0\u5173\u7d27\u8981\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u89c2\u5bdf\u6211\u4eec\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u524d\u9762\u7684\u7cfb\u6570\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\u9c81\u5bbe\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c\u4e09\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201c\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u6cd5\u201d(Instrumental Variable Method)\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u7528\u6765\u5e72\u9884\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201c\u5185\u751f\u6027\u201d\uff08endogeneity\uff09\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u524d\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u5728\u9c81\u5bbe\u7684\u5206\u6790\u6846\u67b6\u5f53\u4e2d\uff0c\u8981\u6c42\u5728\u63a7\u5236\u4e86\u5404\u79cd\u53d8\u91cf\u540e\uff0c\u201c\u5e72\u9884\u7ec4\u201d\u548c\u201c\u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u201d\u5728\u4e8b\u524d\u63a5\u53d7\u5e72\u9884\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u3002\u4f46\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u5f53\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e72\u9884\u53d8\u91cf\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u53d7\u5230\u67d0\u4e9b\u4e0d\u80fd\u89c2\u5bdf\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u5373\u4f7f\u63a7\u5236\u4e86\u6240\u6709\u53ef\u4ee5\u89c2\u5bdf\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u5f88\u96be\u6784\u9020\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u9c81\u5bbe\u6a21\u578b\u6240\u8981\u6c42\u7684\u90a3\u4e2a\u6761\u4ef6\u3002\u8fd9\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f15\u5165\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u6765\u8fdb\u884c\u5e72\u9884\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e3e\u4e2a\u6700\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u9700\u6c42\u66f2\u7ebf\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u6700\u4e3a\u6d25\u6d25\u4e50\u9053\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4e86\u3002\u9700\u6c42\u66f2\u7ebf\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u518d\u7b80\u5355\u4e0d\u8fc7\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5b83\u53ea\u662f\u9700\u6c42\u91cf\u548c\u610f\u613f\u652f\u4ed8\u4ef7\u683c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u800c\u4e00\u65e6\u6709\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u5404\u79cd\u201c\u4e00\u987f\u64cd\u4f5c\u731b\u5982\u864e\u201d\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u5f88\u591a\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u4e8e\u6709\u4eba\u80fd\u786e\u5207\u8bf4\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u66f2\u7ebf\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u7684\u5417\uff1f\u6709\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e0d\u96be\u554a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u662f\u6709\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u5417\uff1f\u628a\u6240\u6709\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u6570\u636e\u627e\u6765\uff0c\u770b\u4e00\u4e0b\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u671f\u4ef7\u683c\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u9500\u91cf\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u7528\u56de\u5f52\u5f97\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u516c\u5f0f\u4e0d\u5c31\u884c\u4e86\u5417\uff1f\u4f46\u8fd9\u663e\u7136\u662f\u6709\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u3002\u539f\u56e0\u5f88\u7b80\u5355\uff0c\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u5f53\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u5230\u7684\u6bcf\u4e2a\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u9500\u91cf\u90fd\u662f\u4f9b\u7ed9\u548c\u9700\u6c42\u5171\u540c\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u5f88\u96be\u7b80\u5355\u5730\u628a\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u7684\u9500\u91cf\u89c6\u4e3a\u9700\u6c42\u91cf\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u8981\u628a\u9700\u6c42\u5206\u79bb\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u5fc5\u987b\u8981\u5206\u79bb\u51fa\u4f9b\u7ed9\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u600e\u4e48\u4ece\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u9500\u91cf\u5f53\u4e2d\u5206\u6790\u51fa\u4f9b\u7ed9\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5462\uff1f\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5bfb\u627e\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ea\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u4f9b\u7ed9\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u5176\u4ed6\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u7528\u5b83\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u6765\u63a8\u6d4b\u4f9b\u7ed9\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u6e14\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\uff0c\u9c7c\u7684\u4f9b\u7ed9\u91cf\u662f\u548c\u5929\u6c14\u5bc6\u5207\u76f8\u5173\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u7edf\u8ba1\u6765\u5f97\u5230\u8fd9\u79cd\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\u4e86\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u5386\u53f2\u65f6\u523b\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u72b6\u51b5\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a8\u6d4b\u51fa\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u4f9b\u7ed9\u66f2\u7ebf\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u719f\u6089\u4f9b\u7ed9\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u4f9b\u7ed9\u66f2\u7ebf\u7684\u5916\u751f\u79fb\u52a8\uff0c\u5b83\u4f1a\u548c\u9700\u6c42\u66f2\u7ebf\u4ea4\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e2a\u7684\u70b9\uff0c\u800c\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u4e9b\u70b9\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc6\u522b\u51fa\u9700\u6c42\u66f2\u7ebf\u4e2d\u4ef7\u683c\u548c\u9700\u6c42\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u800c\u501f\u52a9\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u77e5\u9053\u6bcf\u4e00\u5355\u4f4d\u9700\u6c42\u91cf\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u610f\u613f\u652f\u4ed8\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u4e2d\uff0c\u5929\u6c14\u53ea\u4f1a\u901a\u8fc7\u4f9b\u7ed9\u6765\u5f71\u54cd\u9500\u91cf\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5b83\u5c31\u662f\u672c\u6a21\u578b\u5f53\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u662f\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u539f\u6a21\u578b\u4e4b\u5916\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u501f\u52a9\u5b83\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u6e05\u6a21\u578b\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u503c\u5f97\u4e00\u63d0\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u6240\u6709\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e2d\uff0c\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u6cd5\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u552f\u4e00\u4e00\u4e2a\u7531\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u539f\u521b\u7684\u3002\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u8bf4\u662f\u201c\u53ef\u80fd\u201d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u63d0\u51fa\u8005\u636e\u8bf4\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u540d\u4e0d\u89c1\u7ecf\u4f20\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u83f2\u5229\u666e\u00b7\u83b1\u7279\uff08Philip Wright\uff09\uff0c\u4ed6\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u662f\u690d\u7269\u6cb9\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c0f\u4f17\u7684\u9886\u57df\u3002\u800c\u78b0\u5de7\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u513f\u5b50\u65af\u5a01\u5c14\u00b7\u83b1\u7279\uff08Swell Wright\uff09\u5374\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u9f0e\u9f0e\u5927\u540d\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u7a76\u7adf\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u7236\u5b50\u4e24\u4eba\u4e2d\u7684\u54ea\u4e00\u4e2a\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\uff0c\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u6869\u60ac\u6848\u3002\u636e\u8bf4\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u6587\u732e\u8ba1\u91cf\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u83f2\u5229\u666e\u00b7\u83b1\u7279\u662f\u63d0\u51fa\u8005\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u66f4\u5927\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7ed3\u8bba\u4e3a\u771f\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5c31\u591a\u5c11\u53ef\u4ee5\u677e\u4e00\u53e3\u6c14\uff0c\u4e0d\u81f3\u4e8e\u5728\u9ad8\u4e3e\u201c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5e1d\u56fd\u4e3b\u4e49\u201d\u5927\u65d7\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u60ca\u8bb6\u5730\u53d1\u73b0\u81ea\u5df1\u624d\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u88ab\u522b\u7684\u5b66\u79d1\u6b96\u4e86\u6c11\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c\u56db\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201c\u500d\u5dee\u6cd5\u201d\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u201c\u53cc\u91cd\u5dee\u5206\u6cd5\u201d\uff08Difference in Differences Method\uff09\u3002\u4ece\u67d0\u79cd\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u8bb2\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u5bf9\u63a7\u5236\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6cd5\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u62d3\u5c55\u3002\u5982\u524d\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8981\u60f3\u4ece\u4e00\u4e2a\u63a7\u5236\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5f53\u4e2d\u8bc6\u522b\u51fa\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5c31\u9700\u8981\u4fdd\u8bc1\u201c\u5e72\u9884\u201d\u9009\u53d6\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6027\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8981\u8ba9\u201c\u5e72\u9884\u7ec4\u201d\u548c\u201c\u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u201d\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u5728\u4e8b\u5148\u662f\u6ca1\u6709\u5dee\u5f02\u7684\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e72\u9884\u5f88\u96be\u505a\u5230\u8fd9\u4e48\u968f\u673a\uff0c\u201c\u5e72\u9884\u7ec4\u201d\u548c\u201c\u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u201d\u7684\u4e8b\u5148\u8868\u73b0\u603b\u4f1a\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u600e\u4e48\u8bc6\u522b\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u5462\uff1f\u4e00\u4e2a\u529e\u6cd5\u5c31\u662f\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e0b\u5e72\u9884\u53d1\u751f\u524d\u540e\u201c\u5e72\u9884\u7ec4\u201d\u548c\u201c\u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u201d\u7684\u4e24\u6b21\u5dee\u503c\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u7528\u5e72\u9884\u540e\u7684\u5dee\u51cf\u53bb\u5e72\u9884\u524d\u7684\u5dee\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5728\u5e72\u9884\u524d\u540e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u7ec4\u5bf9\u8c61\u4e4b\u95f4\u5dee\u503c\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u4ec5\u4ec5\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u5e72\u9884\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8fd9\u4e2a\u201c\u5dee\u503c\u7684\u5dee\u201d\u5c31\u662f\u5e72\u9884\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6700\u65e9\u53d1\u73b0\u5e76\u5e94\u7528\u201c\u500d\u5dee\u6cd5\u201d\u7684\u662f\u516c\u5171\u536b\u751f\u5b66\u5bb6\u3002\u65e9\u572819\u4e16\u7eaa\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u7684\u516c\u5171\u536b\u751f\u5b66\u5bb6\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u65af\u8bfa\uff08John Snow\uff09\u5c31\u7528\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65b9\u6cd5\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u996e\u6c34\u8d28\u91cf\u548c\u970d\u4e71\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u731c\u6d4b\u996e\u7528\u6c34\u7684\u4e0d\u6e05\u6d01\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5bfc\u81f4\u970d\u4e71\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u4f46\u5374\u5f88\u96be\u627e\u5230\u8bc1\u636e\u3002\u5de7\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c\u81ea\u7136\u5b9e\u9a8c\u201d\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u4e3a\u4ed6\u7814\u7a76\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u6761\u4ef6\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\uff0c\u4f26\u6566\u7684\u996e\u7528\u6c34\u662f\u7531\u4e24\u4e2a\u6c34\u5382\u4f9b\u5e94\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6c34\u5382\u6b63\u597d\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u642c\u8fc1\uff0c\u4ece\u4e00\u4e2a\u6c34\u8d28\u8f83\u5dee\u7684\u5730\u533a\u642c\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6c34\u8d28\u8f83\u597d\u7684\u5730\u533a\u3002\u65af\u8bfa\u5c31\u5229\u7528\u8fd9\u4e2a\u81ea\u7136\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e0b\u4e86\u642c\u8fc1\u524d\u540e\u4e24\u4e2a\u6c34\u5382\u4f9b\u6c34\u5730\u533a\u7684\u970d\u4e71\u53d1\u751f\u7387\uff0c\u5e76\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e86\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u53cc\u91cd\u5dee\u5206\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c31\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u6c34\u8d28\u548c\u970d\u4e71\u53d1\u751f\u7387\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c\u4e94\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201c\u65ad\u70b9\u56de\u5f52\u8bbe\u8ba1\u201d\uff08Regression Discontinuity Design\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65b9\u6cd5\u6700\u65e9\u662f\u7531\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u574e\u8d1d\u5c14\uff08Donald T. Campbell\uff09\u548c\u897f\u65af\u5c14\u7ef4\u7279\uff08Donald 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Angrist\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u77e5\u540d\u5ea6\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u4e00\u4f4d\u2014\u2014\u81f3\u5c11\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u3002\u8fd9\u4e0d\u4ec5\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u66fe\u7ecf\u51e0\u6b21\u6765\u8fc7\u4e2d\u56fd\u8bb2\u5b66\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u548c\u76ae\u65af\u514b\u5408\u8457\u7684\u4e24\u672c\u5173\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u6559\u79d1\u4e66\u2014\u2014\u300a\u57fa\u672c\u65e0\u5bb3\u7684\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u300b\uff08Mostly Harmless Econometrics\uff09\u548c\u300a\u7cbe\u901a\u8ba1\u91cf\u5b66\u300b\uff08Mastering 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